Our BIAS measure tells you whether a racing surface favored speed versus closers on a particular day:
-- BIAS figures near zero indicates no bias -- Large negative BIAS figures (e.g. -200) indicates a strong speed bias -- Large positive BIAS figures (e.g. +200) indicates a strong closer bias
For two reasons, the Racing Flow™ BIAS figure represents an important advance over previous attempts to quantify the fairness of racing surfaces.
The first is our improved measure of the closing that occurs during each race and race card. In addition to the race winner’s trip, we also consider the early placement of the second and third place finishers and the number of runners passed between gate and wire.
The second is our point of reference. Most methods compare the degree of closing on a given day with the "normal" degree of closing. We compare the actual degree of closing with the amount that should have occurred given the characteristics and splits of each race. So, when several winners go unpressured through easy splits and win wire-to-wire, we don’t pronounce a speed bias because front end victories were not unexpected.
The Racing Flow™ FLOW figure tells you whether the race favored speed versus closers:
-- FLOW figures near zero indicates a fair race shape scenario -- Large negative FLOW figures (e.g. -200) point to scenarios favoring speed -- Large positive FLOW figures (e.g. +200) point to scenarios favoring closers
The bigger the FLOW figure (positive or negtive), the more the advantage to closers or speed, respectively.
Beneath the simplicity are a series of statistical models that have been 10 years in the making. These models "predict" the degree of closing that occurs in races based on up to 14 independent, or predictive variables. All models are track, surface and distance specific. They are based on analyses of more than 100,000 races conducted at 21 racetracks over 37 racing surfaces.
CFR (Closer Favorability Ratio)
The CFR combines the independent effects of track bias and race shape into a single figure indicating whether the race favored runners on/near the lead versus those trying a late rally. CFR values range from 1 (the race ranks in the top 1% of all races in terms of favoring the early leaders) to 100 (the race ranks in the top 1% in terms of favoring stretch runners). In between is, well, in between.
If a frontrunner fails to hold on when the CFR is high (e.g., 98), we upgrade his effort. He was on the wrong side of FLOW and/or BIAS.
If a confirmed stretch runner fails to show late kick when the CFR is low (e.g., 2), we upgrade his effort as well, since he was also on the wrong side.
The BL12 simply indicates the number of lengths the winner raced from the lead at the first two calls, combined.
-- A wire to wire winner will always receive a figure of 0.0. -- A winner than was 5 lengths back at the first call and 4 lengths back at the second call receives a figure of 9.0.
In addition to race-by-race reporting, Racing Flow provides DRF Formulator Web customers the opportunity to integrate Racing Flow figures into their running lines. Click below to see how Racing Flow improves your running lines.